The foundational playbook for Black Friday success

Written by Thomas Bailey | Sep 30, 2025 8:26:52 AM

Peak season is make-or-break for eCommerce. Black Friday, Cyber Weekend, and Christmas put retail operations under exceptional strain. Customers expect reliable, flexible, and fast delivery; brands who get it right can turn logistics into a competitive advantage.

This blog series is adapted from nShift’s Fail-proof peak season report, designed to help retail and eCommerce leaders move from reactive problem-solving to disciplined planning and performance. Each article tackles one dimension of peak readiness, with practical insights you can put to work right away.

Read the previous article in this series: The state of ecommerce: Black Friday & peak season realities

To excel during Q4, retailers must turn these operational challenges into scalable advantages. This chapter presents five core strategies that are the non-negotiable pillars of a robust and resilient logistics network.

Mastering the delivery promise:
Predictability wins trust

Shoppers prioritise predictability over raw speed. In Europe, 70% of regular e-shoppers say predictability matters most. McKinsey finds consumers rank on-time delivery above speed.^[1] ^[2]

The winning pattern is a small set of clearly labeled delivery choices (e.g., two to four), each shown with an order-by cut-off and a reliable estimated delivery date (EDD) that accounts for processing time, weekends/holidays, and carrier hand-off.

Making the promise concrete boosts conversion, and when you include out-of-home options, shifts volume to lockers/PUDO, which can reduce failed first-time deliveries at peak.

Intense cost management. The last-mile battleground

Since the last mile accounts for ~41% of overall supply-chain costs, it’s the pivotal battleground for margin preservation.^[3] This calls for automated multi-carrier rate shopping (by lane, destination, service level, and weight) to continuously select the lowest-cost viable option.^[4]

Retailers must also comply with the EU’s PPWR empty-space cap (50%), now in force, applying from 2030, cutting both cost and waste.^[5]

Finally, nudge out-of-home (OOH) delivery where adoption is high (notably the Nordics and parts of Central Europe): clearer choices and defaults toward lockers/PUDOs reduce costly repeat attempts and lift CX.

Redesigning returns for revenue protection

Returns surge in Q4, and online apparel return rates can be ~3× in-store. Treat sizing/fit, policy, and reverse-logistics speed as margin levers, not cost centers. Inefficient returns management drains cash and consumes valuable warehouse space. To protect revenue, prioritize exchanges and instant store credit where possible. Consumers are receptive when the process is fast and easy.^[6]

Flattening cross-border complexity through pre-emptive compliance

Cross-border e-commerce is now a major slice of Europe’s online sales: in 2024 it reached €275.6 bn, or 36% of the online market (ex-travel).^[7] Delays still stem from customs data errors and VAT handling.

The remedy is to front-load compliance: use the Import One-Stop Shop (IOSS) for consignments ≤€150, automate ICS2 pre-arrival Entry Summary Declarations (ENS), and clear faster so VAT is collected at checkout (no surprise charges on delivery),^[8] and capture HS codes and clear item descriptions at checkout so you can automate ICS2 pre-arrival (ENS) filings and clear faster.^[9]

Why this is critical: The strategic solutions

Embed customs data at checkout. Capture HS codes, clear item descriptions, origin, and value so you can auto-file ICS2 Entry Summary Declarations (ENS).
Why: ICS2 rejects filings for insufficient data quality, which creates delays; complete ENS = faster release.^[10]

Use IOSS for consignments ≤ €150. Charge VAT at checkout via Import One-Stop Shop (IOSS).
Why: When IOSS is used, no import VAT is collected at the border, customers avoid doorstep charges, cutting refusals and contact rate.^[11] ^[12] ^[13]

Localize last-mile options (OOH + country norms). Offer the right mix of parcel lockers/PUDO and message it clearly per market.
Why: 35% of Europeans already take delivery to OOH, and 79% return via lockers/shops, so OOH is mainstream and reduces failed first attempts.^[14]

Building an antifragile logistics network

Engineering for chaos: build systems that get stronger under stress. Q4 isn’t just heavy traffic; it’s an unpredictable chaos event that exposes systemic risks.

Leaders practice failure ahead of time: Amazon ran 733 AWS Fault Injection Service experiments before Prime Day 2024 to validate resilience.^[15] Pair this with “runbooks/playbooks” for known failure modes and SLO-driven telemetry dashboards (API health, queue backlogs, parcel-flow exceptions) so teams act before small issues cascade.^[16] ^[17]

Finally, a multi-carrier orchestration layer is non-negotiable: shippers increase carrier diversification at peak to mitigate risk and secure capacity, and OOH options (lockers/PUDO) further reduce failed first attempts when disruptions hit home delivery.^[18]

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Read the next article in this series: AI-powered logistics: Winning Black Friday with resilience

Or get the full report now to access every strategy in one place:
Fail-proof peak season: Practical delivery management insights to navigate complexity & risk

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Peak season doesn’t reward those who just “hold it together.” It rewards those who build precise promises, resilient operations, and customer trust. At nShift, we help over 22,000 retailers and brands scale fast, stay resilient, and deliver exceptional experiences all year round. Book a demo to see how we can help you turn delivery into your biggest advantage this peak season.