The peak season returns surge: a growing challenge
At 07:40 on the first working morning of January, a returns lead in a Midlands warehouse opens the gate and watches vans stack up like dominos. The scanners chirp in stereo; pallets of glittered knitwear, mis-sized boots and duplicate gadgets begin their slow ballet toward the triage table. Across the North Sea, a shift manager outside Malmö is doing the same mental maths: how many hands, how many bays, how many refunds before lunch.
None of this is a surprise anymore. After the holidays, the tide always swings back, only this year it swung harder. By 6 January 2025, retailers had already processed more than $122 billion in returns globally, up 28% on last season, a macro signal executives can’t ignore. And the UK’s first two days of January told the on-the-ground story: returns spiked 42% year-on-year, turning warehouses into improvisational theatres of capacity.
From Manchester to Malmö to Milan, the early-January rhythm is the same: scan fast or lose value; refund clearly or lose loyalty. Everyone knows the wave is coming. The only question is why it crests when it does and which levers actually change its height.
Why the January wave happens
On Boxing Day in Leeds, Sophie buys her sister two sizes of the same dress “just in case.” She means to return one before New Year’s… then the week disappears. In Oslo, Harald films an unboxing haul, keeps the hero items, and repacks the rest. And in Malmö, a teen unwraps headphones on Christmas Eve, trades them for a different model in the first week of school.
That’s the pattern in miniature. Bracketing. Ordering multiples to choose later has become mainstream in the UK (46% of online fashion shoppers say they do it), swelling the pool of “to-be-returned” items before Christmas even ends. Gift exchange culture adds a second push as soon as stores and depots reopen. And when retailers extend holiday windows, a “slow returner” slice delays send-backs into mid-January, when resale value starts to decay—small cohort, outsized impact.
Carriers see it in the scans: the first working days of January bring a step-change in UK volumes (+52% vs. an average December day). The Nordics echo the cadence. Post-Christmas shopping in the mellandagarna followed by a New Year clear-out, only spread across the first working week rather than one named day.
So the crest isn’t random. It’s built by choice at checkout, generous holiday policies, and a gift economy that settles its accounts in early January. Which raises the only question that matters for leaders: do you fight the wave or use it to move stock and win loyalty?
The high cost of unmanaged returns
By the second week of January, the CFO’s dashboard in London tells a quiet, brutal story: cash tied up in refunds, inventory stranded in limbo, and a growing stack of items drifting from “resellable” to “markdown.” In fashion and electronics, time is the tax—every extra day between the customer’s drop-off and your first scan shaves value. A parka restocked in week one can still sell at full price; the same parka in week five is yesterday’s season.
The pattern isn’t evenly spread. A small slice of shoppers, your serial and slow returners, create a disproportionate share of the damage, not because they’re malicious, but because behaviour and policy make it easy to delay. Extend holiday windows and you don’t just buy goodwill; you buy late inventory, mis-timed cash flow, and a January queue your team can’t outrun.
UK, 2024 — Serial + Slow returners (~22% of shoppers) account for ~46% of returns value. Source: ZigZag × Retail Economics, Annual Returns Benchmark 2024 (Fig. 9). (on pp. 14–15).
There’s a compliance drumbeat, too. Europe is moving from “please recycle” to “prove you didn’t destroy it.” With the new ecodesign rules phasing in, unsold textiles and footwear need a second life by design: resale, refurbish, or redeploy—not a last-minute scramble. What used to be a nice ESG slide is becoming an audit trail.
And then there’s the customer. Returns are the moment they discover whether your brand keeps its promises. A clear portal, a fast first scan, and a predictable refund turn disappointment into trust. A slow, opaque process does the opposite right when they’re deciding where to shop next.
So if time is the tax and January is the exam, the question writes itself: what operating system lets you pay less tax—and even earn credit—when the wave hits?
The playbook told quickly, so you can act
1) January is a season, not a week.
Run it like peak in reverse. Book capacity early, add shifts, and hold a 09:00 stand-up around four numbers: how much came in, how fast you scanned it, how long refunds take, and how much you’ve already resold or restocked. When the first working week hits, you’re either running a plan or running behind. Which will your team feel at 09:15 on day one?
2) Move returns onto rails that don’t fail.
Make lockers and PUDOs the default in your portal (label-free QR, nearest drop-off pre-selected). Consolidation cuts missed home pickups; induction scans start the refund clock sooner; carriers lift pallets, not promises. In the UK and Nordics the network is there—use it. What share will you route to OOH before Black Friday?
3) Aim policy at the few who drive the many.
A minority of customers create a disproportionate share of return value. Don’t blunt-force the whole base. Offer exchanges first (size swaps, instant credit), reward fast send-backs (within 7–10 days), and use graduated fees only where needed (clearance, non-members). Keep VIPs friction-free. Do you know which 20% to nudge—and which 5% to protect?
4) Buy back time without crossing the legal line.
Keep the statutory 14-day right. Be crystal-clear on who pays postage. Then use carrots, not sticks, to speed returns: points, fee waivers, early-bird bonuses. Faster inflow means January cash, not February markdowns. What’s the single sentence in your policy that makes speed feel like a perk?
5) Decide the second life on day one.
Every item gets a route before peak: restock (sell now), refurb (electronics), or resale/outlet (seasonal). Pre-contract partners: measure time-to-triage daily. In the EU, this isn’t just margin, it’s the direction of travel on compliance for textiles/footwear. If a pallet lands tomorrow, does your team know where each SKU goes next?
Scoreboard to run the month
First scan within 48 hours; refunds within three business days; at least 40% via lockers/PUDOs; at least 25% converted to exchange/store credit; at least 60% restocked or resold within 72 hours. Ready to see those four numbers turn January from crisis to recovery?
Disclaimer: Operational guidance, not legal advice. Verify EU/UK/Nordic rules and your internal policies before implementing.
January, on purpose
By dawn on the first working week, the story repeats from Manchester to Malmö: vans nose to the dock, scanners chirp, finance watches the cash meter tick. Returns aren’t a surprise; they’re a system. The retailers who win in EU, UK, and the Nordics don’t argue with the tide; they shape the channel.
Do the simple things that change outcomes: plan the week, not the day; put returns on reliable rails (lockers and PUDOs); aim policy at the few who drive the many; and give every item a second life before it lands. In the EU, that last move now lines up with the regulatory direction; in the UK and Norway, it lines up with common sense and cross-border reality.
This isn’t about boasting a lower return rate. It’s about time: faster first scans, faster refunds, faster resale. Time saved becomes margin kept, loyalty earned, and quietly the difference between a jittery Q1 and a clean one.
Next January will come on schedule. The vans will arrive either way. The only open question is the one your 09:15 dashboard will answer: are you running a queue or running the market?
Author
Thomas Bailey
Product Innovation Lead
