The blind spot of Q4. Why leaders misjudge the real battle

Holiday sales are dazzling, but the way you handle what comes back is what customers remember.

Q4 is the moment every retailer circles on their calendar. Black Friday, Cyber Monday, Christmas, it's the season when your platform transforms into a revenue firehose. In 2025, European e-commerce is projected to reach US$530–600 billion.

But here's the crucial blind spot: independent industry sources, including Statista and DHL, show that returns account for approximately 7% of European e-commerce revenue, equivalent to €37–42 billion in 2024. That's a substantial portion of your sales being put to the test by your customers!

The mistake many leaders make is to treat returns as a cost centre, buried somewhere in operations. But behaviourally, the return is part of the purchase. A smooth return isn't charity, it's the final proof that a brand can be trusted. The psychology is brutal: 84% of customers say they will shop again after a positive return, but around 80% don't come back after a bad one. Those numbers describe loyalty, not logistics.

Think of it this way: nobody judges a restaurant purely by how the food tasted. They remember how they felt when the bill arrived, or whether the waiter remembered their coat. In e-commerce, checkout is the appetiser; the return is the lasting aftertaste.

So the real Q4 scoreboard isn't measured by sales volume, it's measured by how many of those sales survive the returns.

The mirage of growth. Why more sales can mean more trouble

Q4 will still explode. UK online is forecast to grow ~1.7% in 2025, while the Nordics see 80% of consumers shopping online monthly and revenue comfortably north of $40B in recent years. Deloitte expects high-single-digit holiday growth globally, enough to make dashboards light up like a Christmas tree.

But that's the mirage. A surge multiplies whatever you already are. If your returns are clumsy, Q4 scales the clumsiness. If your comms are vague, Q4 scales confusion. Leaders celebrate the spike, then act surprised when service tickets and refund lag times avalanche right behind it.

Behaviorally, customers aren't grading you on how big your peak was; they're grading you on how little friction they felt when something needed to go back. In gifting season, where fit and second thoughts are baked in, the winner isn't the brand with the loudest discount; it's the one whose return feels like a courtesy rather than a confession.

The real cost of Q4 isn't what you pay to ship a parcel out, it's what you pay (often invisibly) when that parcel comes back.

The hidden cost of returns. Where spreadsheets lie

UK apparel hovers near a 30% return rate, while physical stores see closer to 9%. On paper, reverse logistics looks like a solvable line item: 10–15% of order value in carrier fees and labour, another 5–10% in fraud and abuse (DHL: Returns Trends).

But here's what leaders get wrong: the real cost isn't on the balance sheet, it's in the customer's head. When a return feels like punishment (delays, hidden fees, endless forms), people leave the brand. And no CFO's spreadsheet captures the knock-on effect of customers warning friends never to buy from you again.

Think of it like insurance. Paying for an easy return may look expensive per transaction, but compared to the marketing spend needed to replace a lost customer, it's the cheapest loyalty campaign you'll ever run.

So if the biggest return costs are invisible, how do you measure the value of a customer who doesn't walk away?

Returns as the real loyalty program

A WeSupply study shows that positive handling boosts repeat purchases by up to 70%. And here's the flip side: around 80% of shoppers won't come back after a bad return. That isn't just churn, it's a brand's reputation silently unravelling in living rooms, group chats, and coffee breaks.

The mistake most leaders make? They think loyalty is built with points systems or seasonal campaigns. In reality, loyalty is awarded at the worst moment, when something went wrong.

Q4's double-edged sword. Why most brands fight the wrong battle

Holiday surges bring a high-single-digit global lift in e-commerce, but they also mean clogged customs lanes, VAT snarls, and warehouses bursting at the seams. UK retailers wrestle with post-Brexit frictions. Nordic brands face urban bottlenecks.

Here's the common mistake: leaders throw energy into trimming shipping costs by pennies, while ignoring the compounding value of removing friction. Customers don't abandon you because delivery was 20p more expensive; they leave because returns felt like a chore, or because a refund took too long.

Yet the same surge that breaks weaker systems creates opportunity for the prepared. Automated portals cut processing time by up to 40%. Exchange tools flip 30% of returns into revenue. Label-less QR codes not only reduce urban costs by a quarter but signal to customers: "We thought about making this easy for you".

Turning pain into proof. How smart brands flip returns into growth

Every year, we process nearly a billion shipments across 190 countries, with integrations into 1,000+ carriers and 450+ platforms. The outcomes speak louder than any campaign slogan. Hunkemöller increased in-store returns by 15%, Stenströms boosted international shipments by 153%, and ICIW cut order-related enquiries by about 50%.

Q4's legacy is written in the return

Q4 dazzles leaders into chasing numbers: revenue spikes, shipment volumes, dashboards glowing green. But the truth is simple and a little uncomfortable: your holiday sales are just a loan from your customers. The repayment comes when they decide whether to shop with you again.

Returns are where that decision is made. So as you head into Q4, ask yourself: when the fireworks of peak season fade, will customers remember the thrill of buying from you, or the frustration of sending something back?