What’s really shaping ecommerce in 2025? A mid-year reality check for European retail & logistics

In late 2024, we published our predictions for where retail and logistics were headed in 2025. Looking back, while some of those forecasts held up, others have been flipped on their head. 

Now, halfway through the year, one thing is clear: European ecommerce is at a crossroads. Retailers face widening gaps in logistics, tech, and strategy.

But those gaps are only half the story. What’s sticking out just as clearly are the opportunities emerging, plus a growing divide between those who are ready and those still stuck.

So, what does the data tell us about where ecommerce is really going?

Time to dig into the trends unfolding today and redefining margins, customer loyalty, and scalability.

1. Is unified commerce finally getting real?

Yes, but only for a few. Just 17% of retailers rate their unified commerce capabilities as mature. That means most still struggle to connect back-end systems with customer touchpoints across checkout, inventory, delivery, and returns.

Why does it matter? Because top retailers with true unified commerce report 31% lower fulfillment costs and 24% higher customer satisfaction.

Our recommendation? Focus on connecting your systems via APIs, from warehouse to webstore. Even small wins (like real-time delivery updates or smart carrier selection) can drive major business impact.

One retailer doing it right is Princess, a Nordic home goods brand who integrated click-and-collect and hybrid delivery via nShift: once operations became fully connected, they saw store and online sales double.

Integration isn’t a future goal, it’s the price of staying in the game.

2. Social commerce is booming… but not everywhere

$146 billion: that’s the projected value of Europe’s social commerce market this year, growing at a healthy 20.7% rate.

But zoom out and Europe lags. U.S. social commerce is growing at 38% YoY, with Asia even further ahead. The culprits? Regulatory friction, slower mobile-first adoption, and an aging population.

Some markets are breaking through: the UK leads in live events, Germany in sales growth, France in influencer-driven success.

What’s clear: Social commerce isn’t just a bunch of channels, it’s an ecosystem and Europe has some catching up to do.

So don’t wait for a silver bullet. Create brand continuity through the whole journey, especially after purchase. That’s exactly what Swedish sportswear brand ICANIWILL did. By using nShift Track for personalized delivery comms, they cut WISMO calls and turned tracking into a customer engagement touchpoint.

3. Will sustainability survive the squeeze?

66% of consumers say they’ll pay more for sustainable brands.

But 27% of retailers say they’ve scaled back green initiatives due to rising costs. Trust is fragile. Customers are watching. And with CSRD coming into force for thousands more companies this year, transparency is no longer optional.

So how can you do good and stay lean? Focus on wins that cut waste and costs, like paperless returns, efficient routing, and reducing failed deliveries.

Hunkemöller, for instance, embraced paperless returns using nShift, reducing their environmental footprint while streamlining the experience for customers across borders.

Eco claims need receipts, but sustainability doesn’t have to mean sacrifice. Sometimes it’s just smarter logistics.

4. The last mile is costing more and delivering less

Last-mile delivery now makes up 41% of total logistics costs. And 84% of ecommerce businesses say those costs are rising.

How to fight back? AI and automation are driving savings of up to 30%, especially in route planning and warehouse efficiency. Locker networks and out-of-home delivery are also growing, cutting both emissions and costs. Our recommendation: invest in these alternative delivery methods.

Tech-savvy last mile = satisfied customers + healthier margins. That’s the strategy behind Flying Tiger Copenhagen. They introduced PUDO (pick-up/drop-off) delivery across multiple countries using nShift Checkout, unlocking 20% more conversions at checkout and greater delivery flexibility.

In other words: customers like options. And so should your margin.

5. Cross-border delivery is exploding

59% of European shoppers now buy cross-border. 1 in 3 do so monthly. Demand is booming, but so is the complexity: customs, VAT, and fragmented transit systems slow everyone down.

Retailers are responding by automating customs workflows, building regional carrier networks, and offering local payment methods and delivery expectations.

Winning internationally requires local-level precision, so what should you be doing? Automate customs data sharing, localize delivery options, and offer flexible returns across borders. Partner with carriers that simplify, not complicate, the cross-border journey.

Case in point: Millesima, a fine wines retailer, expanded to over 30 countries using nShift’s platform, skipping individual carrier integrations and saving €40,000 per setup. That meant faster rollout and zero compromise on service.

So ask yourself: if a customer in Milan orders today, can you deliver like a local?

6. AI is now

Not next. Not hypothetical. Not a future bet.

41% of supply chain leaders say AI is a strategic priority in 2025. Use cases span from warehouse robotics to delivery forecasting to automated customer updates.

Real-world impact? Up to 30% lower logistics costs and 25% higher warehouse productivity.

Norwegian wholesaler Wittusen & Jensen automated freight labeling with QR codes and eliminated paper inserts using nShift, saving the equivalent of one full-time salary each year. That’s technology doing what it’s meant to: cutting effort, boosting output.

Time to look beyond dashboards. Use AI to drive action, from customer comms to delivery orchestration. The tech is ready, are you?

7. Regulation is no longer a footnote

Forget quarterly updates. CSRD, EUDR, PPWR, DSA, DMA - these acronyms are now the alphabet of modern commerce.

Retailers are investing in ESG software and compliance teams. But smaller businesses risk falling behind as complexity and costs increase.

Compliance isn’t a set of checkboxes, it’s core infrastructure. When regulation moves fast, stay ahead by centralizing data. Use platforms that support reporting, visibility, and audit readiness across your logistics and customer experience stack.