The shape of peak

The shape of peak is how shipment volumes rise and fall around Black Friday: when they start to climb, which days have the most shipments and when they return to regular levels. This report measures it with outbound shipments booked on the nShift platform in 2024 and 2025, against a regular early-November week.

On the nShift platform, shipments stayed above a regular early-November week for five weeks in both 2024 and 2025, from the week before Black Week to the third week after it. Volumes returned to regular levels on the Friday before Christmas week.

On the nShift platform, Cyber Monday was the highest-volume day in both years, with 8% more shipments than Black Friday in 2025 and 9% more in 2024. Black Friday had the larger increase against its own regular level. Cyber Monday’s total was higher because a regular Monday has about 45% more shipments than a regular Friday.

On the nShift platform, Black Week Saturday 2025 had four times the shipments of a regular early-November Saturday, and 2024 showed 4.3 times. Saturday and Sunday together accounted for one in five of Black Week’s shipments, against one in ten in a regular week.

The report places each 2025 day on its matching 2026 date. If 2026 follows the 2025 pattern, extra peak volume builds from 16 November and ends on 17 December. The same approach works for later peaks: match each week by its position around Black Friday, compare it with your own historical data, then plan capacity, collections and shifts by day. Our Black Friday hub covers the rest of peak planning, from checkout to returns.

The report aggregates the outbound shipments booked on the nShift platform from late October to Christmas in 2024 and 2025, each counted on the day it was booked. Identified returns were excluded where possible, and each year is compared with its own regular early-November weeks.