Black Friday & Peak Season 2025

Less stressful.
More successful.


From Black Friday to Christmas, turn pressure into performance with peak season insights that make delivery your advantage.

Peak pressure by the numbers

Black Friday & Cyber Week

93.7%

parcel surge in Europe
(2024)

+28.2%

UK volumes on Black Friday
(2024 vs 2023)

1.6M

return parcels in the UK
(2024)

+8.5%

parcel growth in Sweden
(2023)

+30%

cross-border into Sweden
(2023)

On demand webinar series

Master peak season
anytime

29 Oct – 6 Nov  |  30 mins each |  11am CET   |  Now on demand


Our 4-part, expert-led webinar series shows you how to stay in control during the busiest time of the year - improving delivery performance, protecting revenue, and turning chaos into calm.

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What's different this year?

Peak season used to follow a script. Black Friday spiked, Christmas rushed in, and January brought the returns. Today, that script has been rewritten.

Ecommerce demand spreads earlier and runs longer. Carriers are at breaking point. Shoppers expect choice, speed, and transparency at checkout. And they notice when promises slip.

What’s emerging is a new dividing line: retailers who treat delivery as a cost centre, and those who turn it into a growth engine. The signals are here. The question is: which side will you be on?

Last-mile concerns holding back international shoppers

A great last-mile delivery experience is as important for your international customers as for those closer to home.

According to DHL, shoppers buying from websites in other countries are concerned about:

  • Longer delivery times (46%)
  • Customs charges (43%)
  • Returns costs (33%)
  • Complex returns processes (32%)

How to stay ahead

Read our three strategies for successful international shipping 

Find out how apparel brand Stenströms boosted international shipments by over 150%.

Peak surcharges: an unwelcome seasonal gift from your carriers?

DHL has made headlines after announcing a €0.50 per-package surcharge for deliveries for the busiest weeks around Black Friday.

It’s by no means alone: many carriers across Europe are reviewing their rates to offset the growing cost of ecommerce fulfilment.

How to stay ahead

Do you have confidence your carriers won’t spring any unwelcome surprises on you? Read this blog to see if your carrier confidence is well-placed, or your strategy needs a rethink.

Online shoppers increasingly game returns policies

37% of online shoppers have spent more to get free delivery – then returned the extra items. This jumps to 48% for Gen Z shoppers.

How to stay ahead

Deliveries data can tell you if you have a returns fraud problem. Here’s what to look for, and how to tackle it.

Logistics gets “flex appeal”

Flexibility and precision equal resilience for supply chains in 2026. But getting both right is difficult. That’s the key message from global shipping giant Maersk, which has pinpointed five trends shaping warehousing and logistics over the coming year.

  1. Cost pressures and the need for flexibility
  2. Catering for shifts in sourcing
  3. Increasing returns and SKU complexity
  4. Customer expectations of speed and delivery precision
  5. From static models to real-time reactivity

How to stay ahead

The risks of things going wrong in the last mile are set to increase next year. Our mid-year trends report is your map and compass for building a delivery capability which flies when others falter.

Your delivery experience is your brand experience

85% of online shoppers won’t order again after a bad delivery experience. But that’s often exactly what happens, particularly during peak season.

How to stay ahead

The best delivery strategies help drive conversions, increase customer loyalty, cut costs, and build revenues. Getting there might be easier than you think.

Our delivery promise health check gives you a clear roadmap for action, whether you’re just getting started or an established player. It takes just two minutes to complete.

Carrier capacity crunches derail peak-season success

One in three UK shoppers experienced a problem with deliveries during peak ‘24. The root cause? Carriers which couldn’t cope with the increased demand.

How to stay ahead

Multi-carrier capability helps brands and retailers scale up to meet peak season demand. Learn more about how retailers can prevent peak-season delivery chaos.

Managing delivery management by hand may be technically possible but it’s a false economy. Buying off the shelf software offers far greater value. This guide explains why.

Is agentic commerce the next frontier of online shopping?

Amazon’s Buy for Me and Perplexity’s Buy with Pro mean shoppers get AI agents to do the heavy lifting for them – browsing, paying, arranging delivery – all from a prompt in an AI chat.

How to stay ahead

AI-enabled ecommerce is only as good as the data feeding it. Standardizing delivery data can help you push the next frontier of online shopping. Find out how.

Local retailers punch above their weight

According to ePost Global, two in three European shoppers prefer to buy from merchants based in the same country. But it’s often hard to tell if a retailer’s site is genuinely local, or a multinational masquerading as a local brand.

How to stay ahead

Retailers with strong local ties need to spell them out to customers. Last-mile logistics could be your secret weapon for local competitive advantage. Find out how.

New report

Peak without panic:
Your playbook is here


Our latest report shows you how to shift from firefighting to performance with clear strategies to cut costs, protect revenue, and keep your delivery promises at scale.

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Your growth levers


The holiday rush is chaos for some, opportunity for others. Execution is the difference.

These are the levers that will move your Q4 outcomes: 

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 Win the checkout process

by addressing the top reasons shoppers abandon their carts: unexpected extra costs (which cause 39% of abandonments) and slow delivery times (21%). Achieve this by showing customers accurate estimated delivery dates (EDDs) and the full total cost, including all taxes and fees, early in their purchase journey.

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Shift volume to OOH

 Default to out-of-home (OOH) options (lockers/PUDO) in adoption markets; Europe’s networks are six-figure in scale, and the Nordics show high usage (Finland: lockers are #1 at ~50%), making OOH the pre-selected option where preferred. 

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Engineer resilience

 Orchestrate multiple carriers, monitor estimated delivery date (EDD) accuracy and first-attempt delivery success in real time, and run weekly fallback tests along with quarterly chaos drills. Leverage expanding delivery infrastructure, including nationwide locker networks and diverse carrier partnerships, to maintain reliability and capacity during peak periods.

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Keep cross-border moving

 Capture Harmonized System (HS) codes and clear item descriptions at checkout, auto-file Import Control System 2 (ICS2) pre-arrival Entry Summary Declarations (ENS) and use the Import One-Stop Shop (IOSS) and One-Stop Shop (OSS) for consignments ≤ €150. The Commission reports over €33 billion declared via OSS in 2024. 

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 Design for PPWR now

The Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) regulation (EU) 2025/40 is in force; from 1 Jan 2030 (or three years after the Commission’s methodology, whichever is later) the empty-space ratio ≤ 50% for grouped, transport and e-commerce packaging, with exemptions (e.g., reusable packaging and sales packaging used as e-commerce packaging).

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Leverage AI where it compounds

Use machine learning (ML) to forecast demand spikes, predict exceptions, and automatically route shipments through dynamic carrier and service selection. Combine this with AI-driven observability tools to enable teams to identify and resolve issues before they escalate.

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Coffee Chat: Peak season, decoded

Q4 2025 is shaping up to be the most demanding yet. In this 8-minute Coffee Chat, nShift’s Gregory Mannix unpacks the hidden risks of Black Friday, Cyber Week, and Christmas, and the strategies that separate growth from chaos.

Time for a health assessment

Test your delivery performance in 2 minutes

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How strong is your delivery promise?

Benchmark your promise against what great looks like in 2025.

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How confident are you in your carrier network? 

See how your carrier setup performs under pressure.

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Peak season, perfected

As Hunkemöller’s store network and online volumes expanded, so did the complexity of returns and store drop-offs. With nShift Returns, they scaled operations, cut WISMO queries, and made the returns journey effortless across Europe.

Fail-proof Black Friday: Binge-read the series

Win Black Friday, one hot topic at a time

The state of ecommerce: Black Friday & peak season realities
Black Friday

The state of ecommerce: Black Friday & peak season realities

Explore peak season dynamics in Europe, UK & Nordics. Learn how cross-border growth and OOH delivery shape eCommerce in 2025.
The foundational playbook for Black Friday success
Black Friday

The foundational playbook for Black Friday success

Discover 5 core strategies for Black Friday success: precise delivery promises, cost control, returns, compliance, and resilient logistics.
AI-powered logistics: Winning Black Friday with resilience
Black Friday

AI-powered logistics: Winning Black Friday with resilience

See how AI predicts demand spikes, automates delivery, and builds supply chain resilience. Win Black Friday with data-driven logistics.
Checkout optimization: Converting Black Friday shoppers
Black Friday

Checkout optimization: Converting Black Friday shoppers

Win more Black Friday sales with clear delivery dates, home + OOH options, transparent costs, and built-in cross-border compliance.
Black Friday across Europe: Regional ecommerce insights
Black Friday

Black Friday across Europe: Regional ecommerce insights

Explore regional ecommerce strategies: Nordic OOH leadership, UK post-Brexit delivery, and sustainability in Western Europe.
Black Friday playbook: Quick wins and long-term moats
Black Friday

Black Friday playbook: Quick wins and long-term moats

Follow a dual path to Black Friday excellence: a 30-day sprint for Q4 readiness, and long-term strategies to build structural advantage.

Peak pressure by the numbers

Christmas season

30%

share of all annual parcel volume delivered during the 2023 holiday peak in Europe

6.2B

shipments collectively distributed by Europe's parcel carriers in 2024 (+9% YoY)

11M

parcels handled on the busiest pre-Christmas day by InPost’s network in 2023 (a new record high)

16,000

temporary seasonal workers recruited by Royal Mail to handle the Christmas rush in 2024

4,000

additional vans, trucks, and trailers added to Royal Mail’s fleet for UK holiday deliveries (2024)

What are the key peak season dates in 2025?

Black Friday is 28 November 2025, Cyber Monday 1 December, Christmas cut-offs vary by carrier, and January returns spike from 2 January 2026.

How do I scale deliveries fast?

See how JYSK scaled millions of shipments without breaking promises, proving peak success comes from smart delivery orchestration.

What makes multi-carrier management so powerful?

Multi-carrier management ensures resilience and efficiency, balancing costs, capacity, and fallback protection during seasonal peaks.

How do I connect with more carriers?

Through nShift’s carrier network: over 1,000 global and local specialists. More carriers mean more choice, better coverage, and greater resilience during peak.

Can returns be turned into value?

Yes! You can cut avoidable returns and convert refunds into exchanges or store credits. You can also use returns data to improve products and foster loyalty.

Why is sustainability critical during peak?

Peak volumes mean peak emissions, and customers and regulators are watching. Learn how better reporting helps you stay compliant and win customer trust.

Peak pressure by the numbers

January returns

+42%

YoY spike in returns on Jan 1–2, 2024 (UK)

2x

normal returns volume in January (Royal Mail)

>50%

returns rates for fashion dresses (Europe)

+16%

YoY increase in returns after Christmas 2023 (UK)

£1.5B

lost annually by retailers to “wardrobing” abuse (UK)

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Scaling retail without the chaos

Flying Tiger’s colorful, high-volume product range required a delivery strategy that could keep pace. With nShift, they improved cross-border carrier coordination and delivery reliability across their global footprint, all while preserving their playful, customer-first identity. Logistics, without losing the fun.

Tackle January returns now

The psychology of a post-vacation hangover: why good shoppers turn bad overnight
Returns management

The psychology of a post-vacation hangover: why good shoppers turn bad overnight

Turn post-vacation caution into conversions: see how psychology, returns, and delivery shape trust and reduce cart abandonment.
Post-Christmas returns activity is highest on “Returns Wednesday”
Returns management

Post-Christmas returns activity is highest on “Returns Wednesday”

Post-Christmas returns activity is highest on “Returns Wednesday”. Clear returns strategies can help retailers minimize the revenue hit.
How can warehouses make returns management easier?
Returns management

How can warehouses make returns management easier?

nShift Returns now integrates with Ongoing WMS to simplify ecommerce returns

The nShift platform

Every second, somewhere in the world, a delivery powered by nShift is on its way. From the moment a shopper clicks “Buy” to the moment a parcel is tracked, returned, or exchanged, our technology keeps the experience moving smoothly.

We power the world’s leading Delivery & Experience Management platform, connecting retailers, warehouses, and brands to the world’s largest carrier network: over 1,000 carriers in 190 countries, powering close to a billion shipments a year. 

Learn more →

Turn peak pressure into peak performance

 

You’ve seen the numbers, challenges, and growth levers. Now see what they mean for your setup.

Book a tailored discovery call to discover how you can cut costs, boost resilience, and deliver on your promises during peak season and beyond.

Get a quick, no-obligation demo
tailored to your setup: