Over the past two years, nShift has noted a five-week “peak shipping season”, running from mid-November to mid-December
Retailers urged to build resilient last-mile delivery capabilities as pressure on carriers increases
Retailers have less than two weeks before peak-season retail takes off, nShift advises today.
nShift data from 2025 show a clear “peak shipping season” lasting five weeks from the middle of November (see chart below). During Black Week 2025, ecommerce shipping increased by almost three quarters (1.74x) compared to an average early-November week.
The busiest single day for shipping was Cyber Monday (1 December 2025), which saw 8% more shipments than on Black Friday.
However, Black Week accounted for less than half of peak shipments in 2025. 60% of these happened during the weeks either side. This highlights the need to secure delivery capacity over several weeks to meet demand.
For 2026, nShift advises retailers to expect shipping volumes to rise from Monday 16 November. Activity will culminate over Black Friday (27 November) and Cyber Monday (30 November), continuing until around 17 December.
Retailers should also plan locally as peaks can vary significantly by market. During Black Week 2025, shipments increased by 30% in Finland, and by 87% in the UK, compared with an average early-November week.
Protecting peak-season profits
Peak season can quietly erode margins, often without retailers noticing until weeks later. Published freight audit benchmarks put recoverable overcharging at 3-7% of total freight spend.1 74% of shippers polled by nShift have no freight invoice audit solution in place.
Returns can also erode margin quickly. 66% of UK shoppers would likely accept an easy exchange over a refund if one were offered.2 Better returns systems can help retailers keep more revenue and protect profit.
nShift recommends five practical actions retailers can take now, as peak season gets under way:
- Plan for the peaks you can control. Use your own promotions and campaigns to forecast when demand will be highest
- Arrange extra carrier capacity for peak, but be clear about the costs. Agree when extra carrier capacity ends and what extending or ending it early costs, then check peak invoices, including peak surcharges, against those terms
- Keep delivery promises realistic. Make sure checkout options and delivery dates reflect what warehouses and carriers can support
- Set returns rules before promotions start. Configure return windows, charges and exchange options in advance, and make policies easy to find
- Put freight-cost controls in place now. Match carrier invoices against contracted rates and shipment records to identify unexpected charges so they can be challenged quickly
“Peak is more than just one weekend. Our data show a five-week shipping surge, with most of the additional volume falling outside Black Week. Retailers need to plan for sustained pressure, not a single spike.
That means building flexibility into delivery operations now: securing carrier capacity, keeping delivery promises realistic and making sure peak costs do not quietly erode margins.
The businesses that perform best will be those that can absorb sudden changes in demand while continuing to give customers a reliable delivery experience.”
Jurgen Leijdekker, CEO nShift
Visit nShift’s Black Friday hub: Black Friday 2026 and peak season delivery.
Sources
1. DataIntelo: Freight Audit and Payment Market and MarketIntelo: Connected Freight Invoice Audit Market
2. The Ecommerce Returns Opportunity, IMRG for nShift, 2026
